Thursday, July 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were higher overnight. U.S. stock
indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York
day session begins.
U.S. President Trump is in Europe meeting with European
leaders, with a meeting with Russian President Vladimir
Putin scheduled for next Monday. The marketplace will watch
Trump’s meetings closely. The just-concluded NATO meeting
was declared a success by Trump.
The June U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report due out on
Thursday morning is seen being up 0.2% from May. The June
producer price index report, released on Wednesday morning,
was also up 0.2% from May.
In overnight news, the European Commission projected the
Euro zone inflation rate at 1.7% in 2018 and in 2019, which
is up just slightly from their earlier forecasts.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices
firmer, on a corrective rebound from strong losses posted
Wednesday, and are trading just below $71.00 a barrel.
Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly higher on a
corrective bounce from recent selling pressure.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes
the weekly jobless claims report, real earnings, monthly
retail chain store sales numbers, and the monthly Treasury
budget statement.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early
U.S. trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of
2,797.75 and then at 2,814.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at this week’s low of 2,761.75 and then at
2,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher
in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
seen at 7,300.00 and then at this week’s high of 7,335.50.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
7,249.50 and then at this week’s low of 7,204.50. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-
Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S.
trading, on profit taking. Prices are still in a near-term
uptrend. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with
the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight
high of 145 14/32 and then at this week’s high of 145 28/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term support lies at this week’s low of 144 30/32 and then
at 144 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S.
trading. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart,
but now just barely. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 120.08.0 and then at this week’s high of 120.13.0.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at this week’s low of 120.00.0
and then at 119.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce from recent selling
pressure. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar
index are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-
day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are
bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at 95.000 and then at the June high of
95.255. Shorter-term support is seen at 94.250 and then at
94.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
August Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S.
trading, after the big sell-off on Wednesday. The bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but
more strong selling pressure this week would suggest a
market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are
neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-
day is above with the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical
resistance at $71.50 and then at $72.00. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at $70.00 and then at $69.00.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were firmer overnight on a corrective
bounce from recent strong selling pressure. Grain market
bears are in firm technical command amid world ag trade
worries and very good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt.
This week’s highlight will be today’s USDA monthly supply
and demand report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
