Tuesday, July 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes
are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New
York day session begins. There continues to be little risk
aversion in the marketplace at present, despite a U.S.-China
trade war that is brewing.
In overnight news, the closely watched German ZEW economic
sentiment indicator fell to its lowest level in nearly six
years with a reading of -24.7 in July. The June reading was
-16.1.
The important U.S. economic data due out this week includes
the producer price index on Wednesday and the consumer price
index on Thursday.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices
firmer and trading just above $74.00 a barrel. Meantime,
the U.S. dollar index is higher.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the
weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales
reports, and the NFIB small business index.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher
and hit a four-month high in early U.S. trading. The bulls
have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
the March high of 2,814.00 and then at 2,825.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at this week’st low of
2,761.75 and then at 2,750.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating:
6.0
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher
and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have
the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is seen at the June high of
7,358.50 and then at 7,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 7,297.75 and then at 7,250.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early
U.S. trading, on some more profit taking from recent gains.
Prices are still in a near-term uptrend. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 145 28/32
and then at last week’s high of 146 11/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at
last week’s low of 144 16/32 and then at 144 even. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early
U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even
with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high
of 120.12.5 and then at last week’s high of 120.20.0. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at last week’s low of 119.30.0 and
then at 119.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S.
trading, on a corrective bounce from recent selling
pressure. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage but have faded recently. The shorter-term moving
averages for the dollar index are bearish neutral early
today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 94.250 and
then at 94.500. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 93.750 and then at Monday’s low of 93.440.
Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
August Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S.
trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral
early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day
is above with the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical
resistance at $75.00 and then at last week’s high of $75.27.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at $74.00
and then at $73.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were lower overnight. Bears are in firm
technical command. World ag trade worries and generally very
good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt remain bearish
the grains. This week’s highlight will be the USDA monthly
supply and demand report out Thursday morning.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
