Wednesday, August 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight, on fresh
jitters as the U.S. prepares to slap more trade sanctions
on China—now totaling $50 billion. U.S. stock indexes are
pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session
begins.
In overnight news, China’s imports rose 23.7% in July,
year-on-year. Imports were up 14.1% in June. China’s
exports rose 12.2% in July, following an 11.3% increase in
June. The July surge in imports was attributed to China
stocking up on some goods to prepare for a protracted trade
war with the U.S.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices
slightly higher and trading just above $69.00 a barrel. The
U.S. dollar index is slightly weaker today but still not
far below its recent 12-month high.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the
weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE
liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher
and near the six-month high hit on Tuesday, in early U.S.
trading. The bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,875.00 and
then at the January contract high of 2,889.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at Tuesday’s low of 2,848.25
and then at this week’s low of 2,835.00. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day
Market Rating: 5.5
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are near
steady in early trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-
term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is seen at 7,500.00 and then at
the July high of 7,530.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at Tuesday’s low of 7,440.25 and then at this week’s
low of 7,387.50. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early
U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 143 even and
then at this week’s high of 143 18/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at
this week’s low of 142 15/32 and then at 142 even. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early
U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high
of 119.24.0 and then at this week’s high of 119.27.0. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at this week’s low of 119.13.0 and
then at 119.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early
U.S. trading, on mild profit taking. Bulls still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early
today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s
high of 95.350 and then at the July high of 95.440. Shorter-
term support is seen at the overnight low of 94.820 and then
at 94.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early
U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are
neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical
resistance at $70.00 and then at $70.43. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at $69.00 and then at this
week’s low of $68.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. Grains are
supported on bullish world supply-and-demand fundamentals.
The next big report for the grains is Friday’s monthly
supply-and-demand report. Weather in the Corn Belt is still
mostly benign. No serious weather markets have occurred this
summer and the clock is ticking for such to occur.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
