Monday, July 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock
indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the
New York day session begins. It’s been quieter summertime
trading in the Northern Hemisphere markets recently.
In focus this week will be central bank meetings of the
U.S., Bank of Japan and Bank of England. Only the BOE is
expected to make any policy move—raising its interest rates
slightly. The FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve begins
Tuesday and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices
higher and trading around $69.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar
index is weaker early today.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes pending
home sales and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower
in early U.S. trading. The bulls still have the firm overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,835.00 and
then at last week’s high of 2,849.50. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at 2,800.00 and then at last week’s
low of 2,792.50. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly
lower in early trading. Bulls still have the firm overall
near-term technical advantage but are now fading a bit.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the 7,350.00
and then at 7,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
the overnight low of 7,251.00 and then at 7,200.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S.
trading and hit a six-week low overnight. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 143
even and then at 143 8/32 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the
overnight low of 142 13/32 and then at 142 even. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S.
trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 119.15.5 and then at 119.22.5. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at last week’s low of 119.08.0 and then at 119.00.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early
U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage but trading has turned choppy and
sideways. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar
index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-
day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are
bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 94.555 and
then at 94.700. Shorter-term support is seen at 94.000 and
then at 93.870. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S.
trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early
today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and
slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy
stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00
and then at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $69.00 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day
Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were higher overnight. Bulls have
gained upside momentum recently. Weather in the Corn Belt is
still mostly benign, but warmer temps are expected in early
August. Still, no serious weather markets have occurred this
summer.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
