Tuesday, July 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock
indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the
New York day session begins. In quieter summertime trading,
U.S. stock indexes are near multi-month highs, to
underscore the “risk-on” trader mentality in the
marketplace at present.
While not really market-sensitive, the media is still
buzzing about the summit meeting between U.S. President
Trump and Russian President Putin on Monday. The news
coverage is somewhat taking trader and investor attention
away from other matters that may be more relevant to
markets.
On tap today, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell
testifies before the Senate Banking Committee on monetary
policy. The marketplace will parse his words for clues on
timing of future interest rate increases.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices
near steady and trading just below $68.00 a barrel. Recent
solid losses in crude begin to suggest this market has
topped out. World oil production is back on the rise after
some recent outages from producing countries. The U.S.
dollar index is weaker again today.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the
weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales
reports, industrial production and capacity utilization,
the NAHB housing market index and Treasury international
capital data.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower
in early U.S. trading after hitting a four-month high on
Monday. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the March high
of 2,814.00 and then at 2,825.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at 2,785.00 and then at 2,773.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly
lower on profit taking after hitting a contract high last
Friday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at 7,350.00 and then at the contract high
of 7,414.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
7,275.00 and then at 7,250.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S.
trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with
the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
Monday’s high of 145 24/32 and then at 146 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support
lies at Monday’s low of 144 23/32 and then at 144 16/32.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early
U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even
with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last
week’s high of 120.13.0 and then at 120.00.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at Monday’s low of 120.00.0 and then
at 119.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early
U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for
the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is
even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are
neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at Monday’s high of 94.520 and then at
last week’s high of 95.000. Shorter-term support is seen at
94.000 and then at 93.750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
August Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early
U.S. trading. Recent downside price action begins to suggest
a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages
are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above
technical resistance at $69.00 and then at $70.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of
$67.58 and then at $67.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were firmer overnight on short covering
from recent selling pressure. Corn and soybean market bears
remain in firm technical command amid world ag trade worries
and very good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt. Wheat
has stabilized on ideas of a shorter world wheat crop this
year. Bulls need a weather market in the grains, but the
clock is ticking on such developing in the U.S. Corn Belt
this year.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
