World Marketplace Still Showing Risk Aversion

World Marketplace Still Showing Risk Aversion

Wednesday, August 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock
indexes are also pointed toward weaker openings when the
New York day session begins.

U.S.-Turkey relations have further deteriorated as Turkey
has slapped economic sanctions on the U.S. The Turkish lira
has stabilized at mid-week, but traders and investors
worldwide are still jittery that a secondary currency
contagion could still develop as the U.S. dollar continues
to appreciate against most world currencies.

The economic highlight of the day for the U.S. is retail
sales data for July, which is expected to come in at up
just 0.1%.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index
higher and hitting a 14-month high today. Meantime, Nymex
crude oil prices are lower and trading just above $66.00 a
barrel. Oil prices are near this week’s six-week low and
are trending lower.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the
weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, retail sales,
industrial production and capacity utilization, preliminary
productivity and costs, the Empire State manufacturing
survey, manufacturing and trade inventories, the NAHB
housing market index, Treasury international capital data,
and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early
U.S. trading. The bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at this week’s high of 2,843.75 and then
at 2,852.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at this week’s low of 2,820.00 and then at 2,800.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are lower in
early trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
7,450.00 and then at this week’s high of 7,479.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 7,410.00
and then at this week’s low of 7,378.25. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S.
trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
this week’s high of 144 25/32 and then at 145 even. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
support lies at this week’s low of 143 27/32 and then at 143
16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S.
trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s
high of 120.15.5 and then at 120.20.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at 120.00.0 and then at 119.28.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day
Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is firmer and hit a 14-month
high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as
the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the
dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at 97.000 and then at
97.250. Shorter-term support is seen at 96.500 and then at
this week’s low of 96.020. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market
Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S.
trading and are near this week’s six-week low. Bulls are
fading and prices are trending lower. The shorter-term
moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to
reside just above technical resistance at $67.00 and then at
$67.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
this week’s low of $65.71 and then at $65.00. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. Recent strong
selling pressure has the bears back in control of corn and
soybeans, and the wheat market bulls have faded, too. The
strong U.S. dollar and last week’s bearish USDA report
continue to pressure grain prices.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff