World Marketplace Quieter as Trump, Putin Meet

World Marketplace Quieter as Trump, Putin Meet

Monday, July 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock
indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when
the New York day session begins.

There is still little risk aversion among global traders and
investors, despite a trade war between the world’s two
largest economies. This is keeping a flow of monies into
world stock markets, especially in light of a floundering
raw commodity sector at present, due to the U.S.-China major
trade dispute.

In overnight news, China’s gross domestic product growth in
the second quarter was reported at 6.7%, year-on-year, which
is lower than the 6.8% growth rate posted in the first
quarter. The growth rate is also about in line with the
Chinese government’s 6.5% annual growth target.

The world marketplace is watching for news from the summit
meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russian President
Putin in Finland today.

The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices
lower and trading just below $70.00 a barrel. The U.S.
dollar index is also weaker today.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes retail
sales, the Empire State manufacturing survey, and
manufacturing and trade inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady and
hit a four-month high in early U.S. trading. The bulls have
the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at the March high of 2,814.00 and then
at 2,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at 2,785.00 and then at 2,773.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly
higher and near the recent contract high in early U.S.
trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
seen at the contract high of 7,414.25 and then at 7,450.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at Friday’s low of
7,367.00 and then at 7,350.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S.
trading. Prices are still in a near-term uptrend. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at last week’s high of 145 28/32 and then
at 146 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term support lies at Friday’s low of 145
7/32 and then at last week’s low of 144 30/32. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early
U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even
with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last
week’s high of 120.13.0 and then at 120.00.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 120.08.0 and
then at last week’s low of 120.00.0. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S.
trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for
the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index
are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 94.520 and
then at last week’s high of 95.000. Shorter-term support is
seen at 94.000 and then at 93.820. Wyckoff’s Intra Day
Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S.
trading, on follow-through pressure from the big sell-off
last week. Recent downside price action begins to suggest a
market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are
neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above with the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above
technical resistance at the overnight high of $70.87 and
then at $72.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at last week’s low of $69.23 and then at $69.00.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. Corn and soybean
market bears remain in firm technical command amid world ag
trade worries and very good growing weather in the U.S. Corn
Belt. Wheat has stabilized on ideas of a shorter world wheat
crop this year. Bulls need a weather market in the grains,
but the clock is ticking on such developing in the U.S. Corn
Belt this year.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff