Tuesday, August 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S.
stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the
New York day session begins.
The U.S. today brought back harsh economic sanctions on
Iran that were lifted by the Obama administration as part
of an Iran non-nuclear deal that President Trump cancelled.
Trump tweeted today that anyone doing business with Iran
will not be doing business with the U.S. Likely rising
tensions between the U.S. and Iran could be the next
geopolitical flashpoint in the world marketplace, which
could boost safe-haven gold and silver prices. Reports say
Iran could produce a nuclear bomb within a year.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices
higher and trading just below $70.00 a barrel. The U.S.
dollar index is weaker today but still not far below its
recent 12-month high. The Turkish lira fell to a new low
against the dollar this week, as an example of how the
secondary world currencies have been punished by a stronger
U.S. dollar.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and
includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook
retail sales reports, the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index,
and consumer credit.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit
a six-month high in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
2,875.00 and then at the January contract high of 2,889.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at this week’s
low of 2,835.00 and then at 2,820.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market
Rating: 6.0
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher
in early trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
seen at the July high of 7,530.00 and then at 7,550.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at Monday’s low of
7,387.50 and then at 7,350.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S.
trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
Monday’s high of 143 18/32 and then at 144 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support
lies at Monday’s low of 142 28/32 and then at 142 16/32.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S.
trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high
of 119.24.0 and then at 119.28.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at Monday’s low of 119.17.0 and then at 119.10.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S.
trading, on profit taking. Bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early
today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the
overnight high of 95.225 and then at the July high of
95.440. Shorter-term support is seen at 94.795 and then at
94.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S.
trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral
early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for
buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at
$70.00 and then at $70.43. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $69.00 and then at Monday’s low of
$68.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were higher overnight. Grains are
supported on bullish world supply-and-demand fundamentals.
The next big report for the grains is Friday’s monthly
supply-and-demand report. Weather in the Corn Belt is still
mostly benign. No serious weather markets have occurred this
summer and the clock is ticking for such to occur.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
