Tuesday, August 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight, on
corrective rebounds from Monday’s selling pressure. U.S.
stock indexes are also pointed toward firmer openings when
the New York day session begins.
The currency markets have stabilized a bit today, following
Monday’s and recent price action that have seen the world’s
secondary currencies seriously depreciate against the U.S.
dollar—especially the Turkish lira. Still, this matter is
of serious concern to traders and investors as they worry
about a contagion-type scenario that has gripped currency
markets in recent history.
In other overnight news, economic data released by China
shows the world’s second-largest economy is seeing its rate
of growth slowing, due in part to the trade war with the
U.S. Fixed-investment spending in China grew by 5.5% in the
first half of the year, which is the slowest pace in nearly
20 years. Last year’s investment rate was 8.3% for the same
time period. Retail sales in China also slipped a bit in
July.
Meantime, German economic growth increased in the second
quarter, at a 1.8% annual rate.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index
slightly lower on a downside correction from recent solid
gains that pushed the index to a 13-month high on Monday.
Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading
just below $68.00 a barrel. Oil prices hit a six-week low
on Monday.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the
weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales
reports, import and export price indexes, and the NFIB
index of small business optimism.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early
U.S. trading. The bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 2,843.75 and then at
last Friday’s high of 2,852.75. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at Monday’s low of 2,820.00 and then at
2,800.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher
in early trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day)
are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 7,479.00 and then at
7,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 7,419.00 and then at Monday’s low of 7,378.25. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S.
trading, on a corrective pullback from recent gains. Prices
hit a three-week high Monday. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of
144 11/32 and then at Monday’s high of 144 25/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support
lies at the overnight low of 143 28/32 and then at 143
16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S.
trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a six-week
high on Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 120.08.0 and then at Monday’s high of
120.15.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at 120.00.0 and then at
119.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is a bit weaker in early
U.S. trading, on a mild corrective pullback. Bulls still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are
bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at Monday’s high of 96.390 and then at 96.500.
Shorter-term support is seen at 96.000 and then at 95.440.
Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S.
trading, on a corrective rebound after prices Friday hit a
six-week low on Monday. Bulls are fading. The shorter-term
moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to
reside just above technical resistance at $68.50 and then at
$69.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $67.35 and then at $67.00. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer overnight, on
tepid rebounds following recent strong selling pressure that
has the bears back in control of corn and soybeans, and the
wheat market bulls have faded, too.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
