Upbeat Reports on U.S. Trade Front Boost Risk Appetite

Upbeat Reports on U.S. Trade Front Boost Risk Appetite

Thursday, September 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed to mostly higher overnight.
U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly firmer
openings when the New York day session begins. The
marketplace sees trader and investor attitudes remaining
generally upbeat. Traders are watching for the latest
developments on the U.S.-China trade war front, after the
U.S. on Thursday reportedly made an overture to China to
restart negotiations later this month. Reports Wednesday
also said the U.S. and Canada are close to reaching a trade
deal.

Today the European Central Bank meets and is expected to
report it will continue to pull back from years of a very
easy monetary policy. The Bank of England also holds is
regular monetary policy meeting Thursday.

On tap in the U.S. today is the August consumer price
index, which is expected to come in up 0.3% from July. The
producer price index on Wednesday came in lower than
expected.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index
firmer. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are lower on some
profit taking and trading around $69.50 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the
weekly jobless claims report, real earnings, the consumer
price index, and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in
early U.S. trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-
term technical advantage amid an uptrend still in place on
the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s
high of 2,900.25 and then at 2,910.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at last week’s low of 2,880.00 and
then at last week’s low of 2,869.50. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are firmer in
early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 7,568.00 and then
at 7,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 7,496.75 and then at 7,450.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S.
trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage as a fledgling downtrend is in place on the daily
chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
the overnight high of 142 10/32 and then at this week’s high
of 142 27/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 141
28/32 and then at 141 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.s.
trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices have been trending lower for three weeks.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 119.14.0 and then at 119.16.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at this week’s low of 119.09.0 and then at 119.05.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
U.S. trading. The bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage but trading has been choppy recently.
The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are
neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
94.870 and then at last week’s high of 95.280. Shorter-term
support is seen at this week’s low of 94.295 and then at
93.930. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S.
trading, on a corrective pullback from this week’s solid
gains. The bulls still have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage. However, very stiff technical
resistance still lies just above the market. The shorter-
term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics)
are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to
reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at
the overnight high of $70.28. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $69.00 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Grain market
bears remain in command after a mostly bearish monthly USDA
supply and demand report released Wednesday. U.S. corn and
soybean harvest pressure is also starting, so look for
sideways-at-best trading in the grains in the coming weeks,
but more likely sideways-to-lower.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff