U.S.-World Trade Concerns Remain Bearish Element for World Equity Markets

U.S.-World Trade Concerns Remain Bearish Element for World Equity Markets

Tuesday, September 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed to lower overnight. U.S.
stock indexes are pointed toward mixed to firmer openings
when the New York day session begins. Global stock markets
were mostly weaker on Monday, on world trade worries after
President Trump during the weekend threatened to exclude
Canada from the just-concluded U.S.-Mexico trade deal.

The calendar has turned to September and after the long
U.S. holiday weekend traders and investors are likely
coming back to work in a more serious mood, after a
summertime of fun and family vacations. The months of
September and October many times find the marketplace
focusing on matters of worry. The next couple of months
could well find the marketplace closely examining the
secondary currency markets and the beating they have taken
against the U.S. dollar this year.

In overnight news, the Euro zone producer price index in
July was up 0.4% from June and up 4.0%, year-on-year. Those
numbers were slightly hotter than expected.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index
solidly higher as the greenback continues its assault on
the world’s secondary currencies. Meantime, Nymex crude oil
prices are also firmly up and hit a 3.5-month high
overnight, on worries about a hurricane in the Gulf of
Mexico shutting in some U.S. crude oil production for a
period of time.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S.
manufacturing PMI, construction spending, the IDB/TIPP
economic optimism index, the ISM manufacturing report on
business, the global manufacturing PMI and domestic auto
industry sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady on a
pause and mild profit taking after hitting a record high
last week. The bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage amid an uptrend in place on the daily
bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at the contract high of 2,921.75 and
then at 2,930.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at Friday’s low of 2,896.25 and then at last week’s low of
2,882.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly
higher in early U.S. trading, and not far below last week’s
contract and record high. Bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at the contract high of 7,723.50 and then
at 7,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
Friday’s low of 7,661.25 and then at 7,650.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S.
trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage but trading has turned choppy. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance
is seen at the overnight high of 144 6/32 and then at 144
24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 143 15/32
and then at 143 even. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S.
trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 120.09.5 and then at 120.12.5. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 120.01.5 and then at
last week’s low of 119.27.5. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early
U.S. trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage and regained upside momentum today. The
shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are
neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators for the dollar index are bullish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
95.250 and then at 95.500. Shorter-term support is seen at
the overnight low of 94.695 and then at 94.500. Wyckoff’s
Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are solidly up and hit a 3.5-
month high on today. The shorter-term moving averages are
bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above
technical resistance at the May high of $71.63 and then at
$72.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$70.00 and then at the overnight low of $69.53. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were narrowly mixed overnight. There
are renewed worries on the U.S.-world trade front. However,
very wet weather in parts of the Corn Belt at present is
prompting ideas of harvest delays. Bears are still in
control amid big U.S. soybean and corn crop potential.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff