Monday, August 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight, led by
losses in Asia, on fears of a protracted trade war between
the world’s two largest economies: the U.S. and China. U.S.
stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings
when the New York day session begins.
The U.S. on Tuesday is bringing back economic sanctions on
Iran that were lifted by the Obama administration as part
of an Iran non-nuclear deal that President Trump cancelled.
Likely rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran could be
the next geopolitical flashpoint in the world marketplace.
Reports said Iranians are purchasing and hoarding gold on
fears of a collapse in the Iranian economy.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices
higher and trading around $69.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar
index is firmer today and is still not far below its 12-
month high scored a few weeks ago.
There is no major U.S. economic data due for release
Monday.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in
early U.S. trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-
term technical advantage as prices are near the recent
seven-month high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the July high
of 2,849.50 and then at 2,870.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at 2,820.00 and then at 2,800.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly
higher in early trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-
term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is seen at 7,450.00 and then at
7,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at Friday’s low
of 7,362.25 and then at 7,300.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S.
trading, on more short covering after hitting a nine-week
low last week. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at 143 last week’s high of 143 16/32 and
then at 144 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of
142 28/32 and then at 142 16/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early
U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with
the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 119.24.0 and
then at 119.28.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119.16.0 and
then at 119.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is higher and hit a two-week
high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as
the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even
with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for
the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at the July high of
95.440 and then at 95.750. Shorter-term support is seen at
the overnight low of 95.030 and then at Friday’s low of
94.795. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S.
trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral
early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early
today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical
resistance at $70.00 and then at $70.43. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at $69.00 and then at the
overnight low of $68.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. U.S.-China trade
worries have been pressuring soybeans, but corn and wheat
are supported on good world supply-and-demand fundamentals.
The next big report for the grains is Friday’s monthly
supply-and-demand report. Weather in the Corn Belt is still
mostly benign. No serious weather markets have occurred this
summer and the clock is ticking for such to occur.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
