Friday, September 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S.
stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the
New York day session begins. U.S. stock indexes are not far
below their recent record highs. The marketplace continues
to see trader and investor attitudes generally upbeat.
Reports Thursday said the U.S. has made an overture to
China to restart trade talks later this month. However, a
tweet from President Trump on Thursday was not deemed
upbeat on an imminent U.S.-China trade agreement.
The major U.S. economic report of the day Friday is retail
sales for August, which are seen up 0.4% from July.
In overnight news, the Turkish lira has rallied against the
U.S. dollar Friday after Turkey’s central bank raised
interest rates by 6.25% on Thursday.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index
slightly lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are
slightly up and trading just below $69.00 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import
and export prices, retail sales, industrial production and
capacity utilization, manufacturing and trade inventories
and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in
early U.S. trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-
term technical advantage amid an uptrend still in place on
the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the contract high of
2,921.75 and then at 2,935.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at 2,900.00 and then at 2,885.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher in
early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
seen at 7,650.00 and then at 7,700.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 7,588.50 and then at
7,550.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S.
trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage as a downtrend is in place on the daily chart.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight
high of 142 9/32 and then at this week’s high of 142 27/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term support lies at this week’s low of 141 28/32 and then
at 141 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a five-week
low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower for
three weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 119.13.5 and then at 119.19.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 119.07.0 and then at
119.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly lower and poked
to a six-week low in early U.S. trading. The bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage but have
faded this week. The shorter-term moving averages for the
dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are
baerish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at 94.545 and then at 94.870. Shorter-
term support is seen at the overnight low of 93.920 and then
at 93.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S.
trading. The bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. However, very stiff technical resistance still
lies just above the market. The shorter-term moving averages
are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above
technical resistance at $69.50 and then at $70.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at Thursday’s low of
$68.35 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were firmer overnight on short covering
from this week’s solid losses. Grain market bears remain in
command. U.S. corn and soybean harvest pressure is also
starting, so look for sideways-at-best trading in the grains
in the coming weeks, but more likely sideways-to-lower.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
