Trump-EU’s Juncker Trade Meeting in Focus Wednesday

Trump-EU’s Juncker Trade Meeting in Focus Wednesday

Wednesday, July 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S.
stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings
when the New York day session begins.

U.S. President Trump is meeting with the European Union
Commission leader Juncker today to try to de-escalate trade
tensions between the U.S. and the EU. The U.S. has
threatened EU automobiles with import tariffs.

In the currency markets, focus is on the Turkish lira,
which has been under strong pressure. Also, the Chinese
yuan has seen serious depreciation against the U.S. dollar
in recent months.

The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices
slightly higher and trading just around $68.50 a barrel.
Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is weaker early today.

The big U.S. economic data point of the week is Friday’s
first estimate of gross domestic product (GDP). The number
is expected to come in at up a strong 4.4%. However, some
analysts are even calling for a number of 5.0% or just
above.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the
weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential
sales, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in
early U.S. trading, on a pause after prices hit a five-month
high on Tuesday. The bulls have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of
2,831.25 and then at 2,850.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the overnight low of 2,814.00 and then
at this week’s low of 2,792.50. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.0

September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly
up in early trading, after hitting a contract high on
Tuesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
7,450.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of 7,489.75. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 7,397.00
and then at 7,350.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are modestly up in early U.S.
trading, on a corrective bounce after sharp losses Monday
that saw prices hit a five-week low. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at the overnight high of 143 16/32 and
then at 144 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of
143 3/32 and then at this week’s low of 142 21/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early
U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 119.21.5 and then at 119.25.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at this week’s low of 119.12.5 and then at 119.08.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early
U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage but trading has turned choppy. The
shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are
neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-
day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
this week’s high of 94.635 and then at 95.000. Shorter-term
support is seen at this week’s low of 93.970 and then at
93.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early
U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral
early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI
and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy
stops to reside just above technical resistance at this
week’s high of $69.31 and then at $70.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at this week’s low of
$67.56 and then at $67.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Not much new.
Corn and soybean crops are looking very good and weather in
the Corn Belt is non-threatening at present. While these two
markets are showing early technical clues that market
bottoms are finally in place, bulls cannot give up too much
ground right now. The wheat market has turned more bullish
recently.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff