Trader/Investor Optimism Upticks on U.S. Trade Deal With Mexico

Trader/Investor Optimism Upticks on U.S. Trade Deal With Mexico

Tuesday, August 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were again mostly higher overnight.
U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and
at new record highs when the New York day session begins.

The world marketplace is still buzzing about the U.S. and
Mexico coming to terms on a trade agreement. World stock
markets rallied on the news. Some now reckon the U.S. will
get to work on agreements with its other major trading
partners, including the EU and China. However, President
Trump has indicated he’s in no rush to make a deal with
China.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index
weaker. The greenback bulls are fading a bit now. Meantime,
Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around
$69.00 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the
weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales
reports, the advance economic indicators report, the
S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, the consumer confidence
index and the Richmond Fed business survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer and hit
a contract and record high in early U.S. trading. The bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid an
uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the
overnight high of 2,903.75 and then at 2,920.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at Monday’s low of 2,876.75
and then at 2,860.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher
and hit a contract and record high in early U.S. trading.
Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 7,600.00 and
then at 7,650.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
7,550.00 and then at Monday’s low of 7,498.75. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-
Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly down in early
U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage amid an uptrend in place on the daily
bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
the overnight high of 144 14/32 and then at 145 even. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
support lies at the overnight low of 144 5/32 and then at
144 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are steady in early U.S.
trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 120.09.0 and then at 120.16.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 120.05.0 and then at 120.00.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is slightly down and hit a
three-week low in early U.S. trading today. The bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are
fading. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar
index are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-
day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are
bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 94.405 and
then at Monday’s high of 94.795. Shorter-term support is
seen at 94.000 and then at 93.750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day
Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S.
trading. Bulls still have some upside momentum. The shorter-
term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to
reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high
of $69.31 and then at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at Monday’s low of $68.34 and then at
$68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were narrowly mixed overnight. Not much
new early this week. Bears are in control amid big U.S.
soybean and corn crop potential. Also, beneficial rains have
fallen in the U.S. Corn Belt recently as the crops near
maturity. Any positive news on U.S.-China trade talks would
likely boost the grains quickly.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff