Still Some Risk Aversion Tuesday

Still Some Risk Aversion Tuesday

Tuesday, October 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock
indexes are poised for weaker openings when the New York
day session begins. There is still some risk aversion in
the world marketplace Tuesday. And there are now early
chart clues the U.S. stock indexes have put in at least
near-term market tops, if not major tops.

World equity markets are still rattled by rising government
bond yields that are pulling investor interest away from
stocks. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note on Tuesday
hit a yield of 3.25%, which is a 7.5-year high.

The world’s two largest economies are continuing to
escalate their trade war that has also now turned into a
war of words. The U.S. secretary of state and Chinese
foreign minister exchanged harsh words on Monday.

The International Monetary Fund on Monday lowered its world
economic growth forecasts due to the U.S.-China trade war
and the presently shaky secondary world currency markets.
This week, the Chinese yuan is in focus as it continues to
depreciate against the U.S. dollar even as Chinese monetary
officials work to stem the yuan’s slide.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index
again higher, on safe-haven demand. Meantime, November
Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading just below
$75.00 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the
weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales
reports, and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early
U.S. trading. Recent price action hints that at least a
near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 2,898.25
and then at 2,915.50. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at Monday’s low of 2,866.00 and then at 2,850.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are lower in
early U.S. trading. Recent price action begins to hint a
near-term market top is in place. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is seen at 7,400.00 and then at
Monday’s high of 7,453.25. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at Monday’s low of 7,286.50 and then at 7,250.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S.
trading today and hit another contract low. Bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage as an
accelerating six-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily
chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high
of 137 14/32 and then at 138 even. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the
overnight contract low of 136 16/32 and then at 136 even.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S.
trading. Prices Monday hit a contract low. Bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
an accelerating six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 117.23.0 and then at 118.00.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the contract low of 117.13.5 and then at 117.08.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S.
trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar
index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-
day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are
bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at last week’s high of 95.780 and then
at 96.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low
of 95.345 and then at 95.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market
Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S.
trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral
early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for
buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at
$76.00 and then at the contract high of $76.90. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low
of $74.18 and then at Monday’s low of $73.07. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. Heavy rains in
much of the U.S. Corn Belt recently and more in the coming
days will delay corn and soybean harvest, and that will
limit the downside in corn and beans. While market bottoms
look to be in place for all three major grain markets, the
upside is limited by the U.S.-China trade war and the
surging U.S. dollar index.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff