Still Scant Risk Aversion in World Marketplace at Mid-Week

Still Scant Risk Aversion in World Marketplace at Mid-Week

Wednesday, September 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets
Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S.
stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings
when the New York day session begins. There continues to be
little to sometimes only modest risk aversion in the world
marketplace at present.

Amid a lack of other fresh fundamental news so far this
week, focus remains on the trade war between the U.S. and
China. The U.S. hit China with more tariffs this week and
China vowed to retaliate. Many traders and investors took
note Tuesday of a comment by Alibaba founder Jack Ma, who
said the trade dispute between the world’s two largest
economies could take decades to resolve. Ma implied that
the Chinese culture won’t allow that nation to “give in.”
But Americans reckon President Trump won’t either. The
U.S.-China trade war and the recent strength of the U.S.
dollar have hit emerging markets and their currencies hard
the past few months.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index
weaker and Nymex crude oil prices slightly down and trading
just below $70.00 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the
weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential
construction and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks
report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower
in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-
term technical advantage but prices have been trading
sideways at higher levels for two weeks. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the
contract high of 2,921.75 and then at 2,935.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at this week’s low of
2,883.50 and then at 2,869.50. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating:
4.5

December Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are near
steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage, but have faded a bit recently.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s
high of 7,575.00 and then at 7,600.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at 7,500.00 and then at 7,450.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a 4.5-month
low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-
term technical advantage as a downtrend is in place on the
daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
seen at the overnight high of 140 21/32 and then at 141
even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 140 7/32
and then at 140 even. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a 4.5-month
low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on
the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance
lies at the overnight high of 118.25.5 and then 119.00.0.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of
118.20.0 and then at 118.16.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S.
trading. The bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage but are fading. Prices have been
trending lower for five weeks. The shorter-term moving
averages for the dollar index are bearish early today, as
the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the
dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
94.280 and then at this week’s high of 94.565. Shorter-term
support is seen at this week’s low of 93.880 and then at
93.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S.
trading. The bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. However, very stiff technical resistance still
lies just above the market. The shorter-term moving averages
are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above
technical resistance at this week’s high of $70.42 and then
at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support
at $69.00 and then at this week’s low of $68.53. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight on short covering
from recent strong selling pressure. Grain market bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage and new
lows are still likely in corn and soybeans. U.S. corn and
soybean harvest pressure is going full speed starting this
week, so look for sideways-at-best trading in the grains in
the coming weeks, but more likely sideways-to-lower.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff