Thursday, August 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed to lower overnight. U.S.
stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings, on mild
profit taking after hitting record highs on Wednesday.
A feature in the marketplace today is weakness in secondary
market currencies versus the U.S. dollar. The Argentine
peso hit a record low against the greenback and the Turkish
lira is also under pressure today. The Brazilian real and
Indian rupee are also solidly lower against the dollar. As
the calendar turns to September next week, look for focus
on secondary currencies and their countries’ problematic
debt loads to become in keener focus among traders and
investors.
Reports say the U.S. and Canada are close to agreeing on a
trade deal, after the U.S and Mexico reached a deal on
Monday. Optimism the U.S. will reach more trade agreements
with its major trading partners has in part lifted world
stock markets this week.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index
slightly up on a corrective bounce after seeing losses this
week. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and
trading just below $70.00 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday is light and
includes the weekly jobless claims report and personal
income and outlays.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker on mild
profit taking in early U.S. trading. The bulls still have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid an
uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this
week’s contract high of 2,917.50 and then at 2,925.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at 2.894.25 and
then at this week’s low of 2,876.75. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.5
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly
lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting
a contract and record high Wednesday. Bulls still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of
7,674.60 and then at 7,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at 7,625.00 and then at 7,600.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly down in early
U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage but are fading this week. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of
144 2/32 and then at Tuesday’s high of 144 14/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support
lies at this week’s low of 143 16/32 and then at 143 even.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early
U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage but have faded this week. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 120.04.0 and
then at Tuesday’s high of 120.09.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at this week’s low of 119.27.5 and then at 119.24.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly down in early
U.S. trading. The bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage, but are fading. The shorter-term moving
averages for the dollar index are bearish early today, as
the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the
dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of
94.795 and then at 95.000. Shorter-term support is seen at
this week’s low of 93.930 and then at 93.750. Wyckoff’s
Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit a six-week
high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have upside momentum. The
shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the
4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to
reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at
$71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$69.00 and then at this week’s low of $68.21. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were firmer overnight, on more short
covering and some optimism on the U.S. trade front. Bears
are still in control amid big U.S. soybean and corn crop
potential. Traders will closely examine this morning’s
weekly USDA export sales report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
