Tuesday, September 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed but mostly lower overnight.
U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when
the New York day session begins. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng
Index fell into bear market territory this week, meaning
the stock index is down 20% from its most recent high.
World trade matters remain on the front burner of the
marketplace early this week. Reports said the U.S. and
European Union may be getting closer to a trade agreement
after recent meetings.
The British pound is firmer this week on reports the U.K.
and the EU are close to a Brexit agreement.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index
near steady. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly
higher and trading just below $68.00 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is again light
and includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs
retail sales reports, and monthly wholesale trade.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early
U.S. trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage amid an uptrend still in place on the
daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 2,893.00
and then at 2,900.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at last week’s low of 2,869.50 and then at 2,860.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
December Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are lower in
early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
seen at the overnight high of 7,513.25 and then at 7,550.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at last week’s low of
7,420.50 and then at 7,400.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are down in early U.S. trading
and hovering near a four-week low. Bulls still have the
slight overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading
as a fledgling downtrend is in place on the daily chart.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight
high of 142 27/32 and then at 143 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at
the overnight low of 142 13/32 and then at 142 even. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit another
four-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading as
prices have been trending lower for three weeks. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 119.22.5 and then at 119.28.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 119.14.5 and then at 119.08.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
U.S. trading. The bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for
the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are
neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at last week’s high of 95.280 and then
at 95.500. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low
of 94.450 and then at 94.250. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market
Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early
U.S. trading. The bulls still appear to be exhausted to
suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term
moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is
below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics)
are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just
above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $68.52 and
then at $69.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at Monday’s low of $67.33 and then at $67.00.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were narrowly mixed overnight. Grain
market bears are still in technical control. Focus this week
will be on Wednesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand
reports. Trading today will likely be subdued ahead of the
government update on supply and demand.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
