Friday, August 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
U.S. and world stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer
overnight.
Low- to mid-level trade talks between the U.S. and China
have ended with reportedly no significant results. Each
country on Thursday levied new tariffs on each other’s
products. This matter continues to be a drag on some U.S.
agricultural markets.
A highlight of the trading week will be the annual meeting
of world central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that
begins in earnest today. Past years’ meetings have produced
important proclamations from world central bankers. Fed
Chairman Powell is slated to speak this morning at the
symposium.
Gold prices are posting modest gains today as the bulls
have stabilized the market after recent selling pressure
drove prices to a more-than-one-year low. Reports overnight
said Asian demand for gold bullion is picking up, on
perceived bargain hunting.
The key outside market today find the U.S. dollar index
lower. The greenback bears have had the better week.
Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading just
below $69.00 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes durable
goods orders.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early
U.S. trading and not far below this week’s seven-month high.
The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical
advantage amid an uptrend in place on the daily bar chart.
The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at this week’s high of 2,874.00 and then
at the January high of 2,889.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at this week’s low of 2,846.25 and then at
2,830.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are modestly
up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-
term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is even with
the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance
is seen at this week’s high of 7,475.00 and then at
7,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at 7,400.00 and
then at this week’s low of 7,352.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S.
trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage amid an uptrend in place on the daily bar chart.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
this week’s high of 145 24/32 and then at 146 even. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
support lies at 145 even and then at this week’s low of 144
19/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S.
trading, on a corrective pullback after prices Wednesday
hit a 2.5-month high. Bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.18.5 and then
at this week’s high of 120.24.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 120.13.5 and then at this
week’s low of 120.09.0. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S.
trading today. Bears have had the better week but the bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early
today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 95.660 and
then at 96.000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s
low of 94.830 and then at 94.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market
Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are solidly up and hit a
three-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have upside
momentum. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early
today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for
buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at
$69.19 and then at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $68.50 and then at $67.50. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Bears are having
a very good week in the grains. Focus this week has been on
the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour of corn and soybeans.
Results of the tour showed big U.S. crops to be harvested.
Also, beneficial rains have fallen in the U.S. Corn Belt
this week.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
