Monday, July 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed to mostly lower overnight.
U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower
openings when the New York day session begins. The world
stock markets showed a mildly bearish reaction to President
Trump’s tweet late Sunday warning Iran not to threaten the
U.S. or that country would suffer grave consequences.
A Group of 20 finance ministers meeting held during the
weekend resulted in little markets-moving results. U.S.
Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the U.S. could indeed
follow through with $500 billion in new trade sanctions
against China.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices
modestly higher and trading just below $69.00 a barrel.
Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early
today.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the
Chicago Fed national activity index and existing home
sales.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower
in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a
five-month high last week. The bulls still have the firm
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last
week’s high of 2,818.25 and then at 2,840.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at last week’s low of
2,789.75 and then at 2,773.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating:
4.5
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are weaker
early today. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
seen at the overnight high of 7,377.50 and then at 7,400.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at last week’s low of
7,292.50 and then at 7,250.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early
U.S. trading after hitting a nearly four-week low overnight.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
144 16/32 and then at 145 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the
overnight low of 144 1/32 and then at 143 16/32. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S.
trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 120.08.0 and then at
last week’s high of 120.13.5. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 119.30.0 and then at last week’s low
of 119.27.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for
the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is
even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are
neutral to bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at 94.500 and then at
95.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
93.970 and then at 93.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market
Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S.
trading. Bulls have regained some momentum after the recent
sell off. The shorter-term moving averages are still bearish
early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above
technical resistance at $70.00 and then at $71.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $68.00 and then
at $67.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were steady to firmer overnight. Corn
and soybean markets are now showing early technical clues
that market bottoms are finally in place, following their
bullish weekly high closes on Friday. The wheat market has
also turned more bullish just recently.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff