Tuesday, September 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S.
stock indexes are also pointed toward higher openings when
the New York day session begins. Stock market bulls point
out that we are now more than half way through what can be
the historically turbulent month of September with no
significant speed bumps yet encountered.
The marketplace is not showing a major reaction to the news
Monday afternoon that President Trump will slap another
$200 billion in tariffs against China, to which China vowed
to retaliate, and to which Trump said he would retaliate to
the retaliation. Reports said the world’s two largest
economies still plan to hold trade talks later this month.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index
slightly firmer and Nymex crude oil prices higher and
trading just below $70.00 a barrel. Stiff chart resistance
above the market has capped gains, and will likely continue
to do so.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the
weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales
reports, the NAHB housing market index, and Treasury
international capital data.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher
in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-
term technical advantage amid an uptrend in place on the
daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even
with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract
high of 2,921.75 and then at 2,935.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,883.50
and then at 2,869.50. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are firmer in
early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage, but have faded a bit recently. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 7,500.00 and
then at 7,550.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
September low of 7,420.50 and then at 7,400.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early
U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage as a downtrend is in place on the daily chart.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
the overnight high of 141 31/32 and then at 142 9/32. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
support lies at this week’s low of 141 7/32 and then at the
August low of 141 4/32. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S.
trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar
chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 119.10.5 and then 119.13.5. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.02.5 and
then at this week’s low of 118.31.5. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly up in early U.S.
trading. The bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage but have faded. The shorter-term moving
averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as
the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even
with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for
the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high
of 94.565 and then at 94.870. Shorter-term support is seen
at last week’s low of 93.920 and then at 93.500. Wyckoff’s
Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S.
trading. The bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. However, very stiff technical resistance still
lies just above the market. The shorter-term moving averages
are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The
9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above
technical resistance at $70.00 and then at $70.50. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $69.00 and then
at the overnight low of $68.53. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Grain market
bears remain in near-term technical control. U.S. corn and
soybean harvest pressure is going full speed this week, so
look for sideways-at-best trading in the grains in the
coming weeks, but more likely sideways-to-lower.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff