First half of 2017 down for Trend Following

Wisdom State of Trend Following

June 2017 Trend Following: DOWN  -3.44%  /  YTD: -16.88%

The whole first half of 2017 was negative, with the June result following the same trend. The YTD figure is now well in the red and it would take a good reversal of that equity curve to erase the losses through the second half of the year.

Below is the full State of Trend Following report as of last month.

Performance is hypothetical.

Chart for June:

Wisdom State of Trend Following - June 2017


And the 12-month chart:

Wisdom State of Trend Following 12 months - June 2017

Below are the summary stats:

Horizon Return Ann. Vol.
Last month -3.44% 13.03%
Year To Date -16.88% 11.14%
Last 12 months -32.43% 11.16%
Last calendar year (2016) -18.17% 14.36%
Since Index Launch (08-13) -0.62% 13.94%
Current DD -41.29%
MaxDD (since 2000) -41.29%

Individual System Contribution

The index is composed of several systems, each traded over different time horizons (short, medium and long) with a diversified portfolio of futures (details of the index components and construction can be found further below, in the next section).

The contribution of each individual system to the overall index performance is measured on a daily basis. The following chart shows the evolution of each system’s respective performance attribution over the last month: 

Systems Attribution - June 2017


And further below, the performance attribution of each system over the last 12 months, sorted by ranking:

Systems Attribution 12 months - June 2017

System 12-month last month
BBB-S -3.16% -0.29%
BBB-M -2.40% -0.20%
BBB-L -1.51% 0.02%
DMA-S -3.64% -0.21%
DMA-M -3.30% -0.40%
DMA-L -2.68% -0.47%
DON-S -2.44% -0.18%
DON-M -2.39% -0.28%
DON-L -1.63% -0.15%
TMA-S -4.32% -0.42%
TMA-M -3.32% -0.51%
TMA-L -1.64% -0.36%
Index -32.43% -3.44%

Please note the colour-coding to assist reading the charts:

  • one “color hue” per system (e.g. blue for “BBB” system)
  • one “shade” per time horizon (e.g. dark for “L” – Long-term system)

State of Trend Following Historical Performance and Post Archive

Please find below the table of historical performance since the index has been live on our site. Each performance number links to the corresponding report.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year
2013 -3.75% -4.01% +0.22% +1.46% -0.67% -11.64%
2014 -1.67% +0.37% -2.14% +1.17% +1.11% +4.46% +3.93% +3.08% +8.49% +0.62% +10.38% +7.60% +43.34%
2015 +11.76% -3.68% +2.04% -2.17% -2.73% -3.57% +6.93% +1.97% +4.86% -8.86% +5.91% -1.77% +9.27%
2016 +5.50% +4.30% -2.79% -0.81% -7.14% +2.26% -1.35% -7.00% -4.73% -6.19% -2.27% +1.38% -18.15%
2017 -2.84% -1.96% -6.56% -1.35% -2.59% -3.44% -16.88%

Performance is hypothetical. Note that there might be slight discrepancies between the results in the table below and the returns published in the report, due to the index being re-simulated and calculated monthly.

Index Methodology

The index performance is simulated using Trading Blox and CSI data (back-adjusted contracts rolling on Open Interest). The performance of the index is directly derived from the performance of a Trading Blox simulation suite composed of each system component as a system part of that suite.

The simulation uses realistic trading friction parameters (slippage, commissions, interest as detailed aside).

The individual system performance attributions are directly extracted from the same simulation run.

Trade Friction parameters

Slippage 5% of ATR
Min. slippage $15.00
Commisions $20 per contract
Slippage on rolls Yes
Roll slippage 5% of ATR
Earn interest Yes


The portfolio selected for the index represents a diversified mix of global futures balanced across all sectors:


Market Exchange
Brazilian Real CME
Canadian Dollar CME
Euro / Japanese Yen CME
Korean Won KRX (Kofex)
New Zealand Dollar CME
US Dollar Index ICE US


Market Exchange
Brent Crude Oil ICE EUR (IPE)
Gasoline (RBOB) NYMEX
Kerosene TOCOM
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) E-mini NYMEX
Natural Gas (Henry Hub) E-mini NYMEX


Market Exchange
Crude Palm Oil BMD (MDEX)
Milling Wheat EURONEXT (MATIF)
Rice Rough CME (CBOT)
Soybeans CME (CBOT)
Yellow Maize SAFEX


Market Exchange
Copper CME (NYMEX)
Platinum CME (NYMEX)
Silver CME (COMEX)


Market Exchange
Cattle Feeder CME
Live Cattle CME

Equity Indices

Market Exchange
Dax index EUREX
FTSE Xinhua China A50 index SGX
Hang Seng index mini HKEx
Mini Russell 1000 index ICE US (NYFE)
MSCI Singapore Stock index SGX


Market Exchange
Canadian 10-Year Govt Bond MX
Euro German Bund EUREX
Japanese 10-Year Govt Bond SGX
Swiss 10-Year Govt Bond EUREX
US T-Notes 5-Year CME (CBOT)


Market Exchange
90-Day NZ Bank Bills ASX (SFE-NZFE)
Euribor 3-month EURONEXT (LIFFE)


Market Exchange
Milk (Class III) CME
Sugar (#11) ICE US (NYBOT-CSCE)


Market Exchange
Lumber CME
Rubber TOCOM

The above is a representation of the global futures markets that we can give you access to at Wisdom Trading. For the full list of products and markets, please check our global products page. We cover over 300 markets in more than 30 exchanges globally.


One of the main goals of the index is to mirror the performance of trend following in general. As such, the trading strategy is based on simple, public trading systems that use trend following principles. Each system is declined in three different timeframes (long, medium and short) to cover a wide spectrum of trend duration and increase overall diversification.

Color Component System used Trading Horizon Parameters Pos. Size
BBB-S Bollinger Band Breakout Short-term 20,2 0.483
BBB-M Bollinger Band Breakout Medium-term 50,2 0.63
BBB-L Bollinger Band Breakout Long-term 200,2 1
DMA-S Dual Moving Average Short-term 20,10 0.17
DMA-M Dual Moving Average Medium-term 50,20 0.17
DMA-L Dual Moving Average Long-term 200,50 0.19
DON-S Donchian Breakout Short-term 20 0.44
DON-M Donchian Breakout Medium-term 50 0.58
DON-L Donchian Breakout Long-term 200 0.85
TMA-S Triple Moving Average Short-term 50,20,10 0.41
TMA-M Triple Moving Average Medium-term 200,50,20 0.59
TMA-L Triple Moving Average Long-term 800,200,50 0.93

The money management aspect of the overall system simply allocates a fixed percentage of equity to each new position’s calculated risk (based on volatility). Each system is set up with a different percent of equity in order to calibrate (or normalize) the volatility of each system. The calibration was performed by assigning a position sizing percent to normalize the standard deviation of each system’s result stream on the period 2000-2010 (normalization period). The period from 2010-2013 was used for validation.

Material Assumptions

The test is set-up with an arbitrary starting capital of 1B, starting in 2000. As the test is intended to represent an hypothetical index, no liquidity/volume constraints are enforced, making the results less dependent on actual simulation capital.
Profits are compounded (assumed to be reinvested).
The purchase or sale price for each trade that generated the hypothetical results is based either on 1) open price, the day after the Buy or Sell signal for the Moving Average-based systems or 2) stop level set by the relevant indicator for the Bollinger or Donchian systems. The actual simulated fill price is obtained by calculating a slippage factor, which is added to (or subtracted from) the theoretical entry price. For a long entry, the slippage factor is calculated by measuring the range from the theoretical entry price to the day’s highest price, and multiplying that amount by the Slippage Percent. (For short
entries, the slippage factor is calculated by measuring the range from the theoretical entry price to the low). The slippage factor is then added to, or subtracted from the theoretical entry price, to obtain the simulated fill price.


Risk Disclosures

Commodity Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Any performance results listed in all marketing materials represents simulated computer results over past historical data, and not the results of an actual account. All opinions expressed anywhere on this website are only opinions of the author. The information contained here was gathered from sources deemed reliable, however, no claim is made as to its accuracy or content. Different testing platforms can produce slightly different results. Our systems are only recommended for well capitalized and experienced futures traders.

CFTC-required risk disclosure for hypothetical results

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.


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