Monday, August 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
It’s a risk-off day in the world marketplace to start the
trading week Monday, as global stock markets were lower
overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward lower
openings when the New York day session begins.
The stock and currency markets are roiled again today, with
focus on a crumbling Turkish lira and that country’s
financial troubles. The Lira was down as much as 10% today
following sharp losses last week. Turkey’s government has
so far done or said little to stem the drop in the lira.
The Indian rupee, South African rand and Mexican peso are
included in those secondary currencies also getting hit
hard today by an appreciating U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar
index rose to another 13-month high today, on safe-haven
demand.
The marketplace is worried about the Turkish lira’s severe
depreciation expanding into a contagion of secondary world
currencies.
The gold and silver market bulls are getting no benefit
from safe-haven demand amid the keener uncertainty in the
world marketplace. The yellow metal is down and hit a
nearly 1.5-year low today.
In other news, China announced late Friday that it will not
adopt a policy of devaluing its currency, the yuan, to
counter the negative effects of a trade war with the U.S.
There is no major U.S. economic data due for release
Monday.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early
U.S. trading, on more profit taking after hitting a six-
month high last week. The bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage but are fading now, after a
technically bearish weekly low close on Friday. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the
overnight high of 2,835.75 and then at Friday’s high of
2,852.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at the
overnight low of 2,820.50 and then at 2,800.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-
day Market Rating: 4.0
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are lower in
early trading, on more profit taking. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading after
Friday’s technically bearish weekly low close. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
the overnight high of 7,427.50 and then at 7,450.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
7,378.25 and then at 7,350.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S.
trading, on a corrective pullback from recent gains. Prices
did hit a three-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of
144 25/32 and then at 145 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 144 even
and then at 143 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early
U.S. trading, on a mild corrective pullback after hitting a
six-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.14.5 and then
at the July high of 120.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 120.08.0 and then at 120.00.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is higher and hit a 13-month
high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as
the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the
dollar index are neutral to bullish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the
overnight high of 96.390 and then at 96.500. Shorter-term
support is seen at 96.000 and then at 95.440. Wyckoff’s
Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early
U.S. trading. Prices Friday hit a six-week low and the bulls
are fading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above
technical resistance at $68.00 and then at $68.50. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $67.00 and then
at last week’s low of $66.14. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were lower overnight, on follow-through
selling from Friday’s big down day, in the wake of a bearish
monthly supply-and-demand report issued Friday morning.
Grain market bulls are in serious trouble again.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff