Thursday, July 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock
indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New
York day session begins, on some mild profit taking after
scoring multi-month or contracts highs this week.
The U.S. hard line against its trading partners is back on
the front burner of the marketplace and is pressuring world
equity markets Thursday. President Trump has again
threatened the European Union with tariffs on its
automobiles. The Chinese yuan declined to a 12-month low
against the U.S. dollar today amid expectations that
Chinese monetary officials will continue to let the yuan
depreciate, including by easing China’s monetary policy.
Gold and silver prices slumped to 12-month lows overnight,
with gold closing in on $1,200.00 and silver nearing
$15.00. While there are no significant, early chart clues
these metals are near a bottom, they are short-term
oversold, technically, and due for a corrective bounce very
soon.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices
lower and trading around $68.00 a barrel. Recent solid
losses in crude suggest this market has topped out.
Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is higher today and hit a
fresh 12-month high.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the
weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business
survey, and leading economic indicators.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early
U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a five-month
high Wednesday. The bulls still have the firm overall near-
term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this
week’s high of 2,818.25 and then at 2,840.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at this week’s low of
2,789.75 and then at 2,773.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating:
4.5
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are lower on
mild profit taking after hitting a contract high Wednesday.
Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
the overnight high of 7,416.00 and then at the contract high
of 7,437.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
7,350.00 and then at 7,300.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker and hit a three-
week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at the overnight high of 144 27/32 and
then at 145 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of
144 12/32 and then at 144 even. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a three-
week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
the overnight high of 120.03.0 and then at Wednesday’s high
of 120.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 119.27.5 and then at 119.24.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is higher and hit a contract
high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as
the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-
day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar
index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight contract
high of 95.285 and then at 95.500. Shorter-term support is
seen at the 95.000 and then at the overnight low of 94.750.
Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
August Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S.
trading. Recent downside price action suggests a market top
is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical
resistance at $68.00 and then at $69.00. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at this week’s low of $67.03
and then at $66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Focus
today will be on the weekly USDA export sales report. Corn
and soybean market bears remain in firm technical command.
Wheat has stabilized on ideas of a shorter world wheat crop
this year. Bulls need a weather market in the grains, but
the clock is ticking on such developing in the U.S. Corn
Belt this year.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
