Thursday, August 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock
indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New
York day session begins.
The Russian ruble hit a two-year low against the U.S.
dollar overnight as the U.S. hit Russia with new economic
sanctions. The Turkish lira fell to another record low
against the greenback. The British pound is under pressure
on Brexit uncertainties.
The most significant U.S. economic report so far this week
is out this morning—the producer price index for July,
which is expected to show a 0.2% rise from June. The
consumer price index is due out Friday morning.
The key “outside markets” today find the U.S. dollar index
slightly up and crude oil prices near steady and trading
around $67.00 a barrel.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes
the weekly jobless claims report, monthly chain store sales
and monthly wholesale trade.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher
and near the six-month high hit earlier this week, in early
U.S. trading. The bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of
2,863.75 and then at 2,875.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at this week’s low of 2,835.00 and then at
2,820.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly
up in early trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at 7,500.00 and then at the July high of
7,530.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at 7,440.25 and
then at this week’s low of 7,387.50. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are steady in early U.S.
trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
143 even and then at this week’s high of 143 18/32. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
support lies at this week’s low of 142 11/32 and then at 142
even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early
U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 119.20.0 and then at this week’s high of 119.27.0.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at this week’s low of 119.12.5
and then at 119.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S.
trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar
index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-
day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are
bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at this week’s high of 95.350 and then
at the July high of 95.440. Shorter-term support is seen at
this week’s low of 94.810 and then at 94.500. Wyckoff’s
Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early
U.S. trading, after solid losses on Wednesday. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-
day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for
buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at
$67.50 and then at $68.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at Wednesday’s low of $66.32 and then at
$66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Traders will
closely examine this morning’s weekly USDA export sales
report. However, the big report for the grains is Friday’s
monthly supply-and-demand report. Weather in the Corn Belt
is still mostly benign.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
