Thursday, July 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were higher overnight. U.S. stock
indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York
day session begins.
The U.S. and China remain headed for the Friday showdown on
putting into effect their already-announced trade sanctions
against each other. A Chinese official said Thursday the
U.S. is firing shots to the world, including itself,” on the
trade matter.
Some important U.S. economic data is due out the next two
days, including the Fed’s FOMC minutes on Thursday afternoon
and the jobs report from the Labor Department on Friday.
The key “outside markets” today find the U.S. dollar index
lower but still not far below the 12-month high hit last
week. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher and just
below the 3.5-year high hit on Tuesday, and trading around
$74.50 a barrel. A UBS energy analyst said Brent crude oil
prices could briefly hit $100.00 due to a world supply
shortage.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the
weekly jobless claims report, the ADP national employment
report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the U.S. services
PMI, the ISN non-manufacturing report, the global services
PMI, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the
FOMC minutes.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early
U.S. trading. The bulls have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
2,750.00 and then at 2,765.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the overnight low of 2,731.50 and then
at last week’s low of 2,715.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.5
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher
in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is seen at 7,100.00 and then at
this week’s high of 7,165.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 7,015.00 and then at 6,956.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S.
trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
seen at last week’s high of 145 16/32 and then at 145 28/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term support lies at this week’s low of 144 16/32 and then
at 144 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S.
trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last
week’s high of 120.14.5 and then at 120.20.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at this week’s low of 119.30.0 and
then at 119.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S.
trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar
index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 94.345 and then at this
week’s high of 94.730. Shorter-term support is seen at
94.000 and then at 93.830. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
August Nymex crude oil prices are higher and not far below
this week’s 3.5-year high in early U.S. trading. The
shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the
4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above with the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to
reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high
of $75.27 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at the overnight low of $73.50 and then at
$73.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures did not trade overnight due to the holiday
Wednesday. Bears are still in technical command. World ag
trade worries and generally good growing weather in the U.S.
Corn Belt remain bearish. It’s going to take a mid- or late-
summer weather market scare to jump-start rallies in the
stumbling grain markets.
MPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
