FOMC Meeting in Focus Tuesday

FOMC Meeting in Focus Tuesday

Tuesday, September 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed to mostly firmer overnight.
U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when
the New York day session begins. There are lingering
worries U.S. and China’s trade war will escalate to the
point of damaging world commerce. Meanwhile, President
Trump is negotiating bi-lateral trade deals with other
Asian countries and has signed an agreement with South
Korea.

Focus early this week is on the Federal Reserve’s two-day
Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday
morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. The
FOMC is expected to slightly raise U.S. interest rates at
this meeting. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will also hold a
press conference after the meeting.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index
slightly lower and hovering near last week’s 2.5-month low.
The greenback bears have downside technical momentum to
suggest a market top is in place for the USDX. Meantime,
November Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading
around $72.50 a barrel. Supply worries have boosted oil
recently. U.S. sanctions against Iran begin in early
November, which will likely take much of that country’s oil
off the world market.

U.S. economic data due for release today includes the
weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales
reports, the S&P/Case-Shiller/Corelogic home index, the
monthly house price index, the consumer confidence index,
and the Richmond Fed business survey. President Trump also
delivers a speech to the United Nations in New York.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher
in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-
term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract
high of 2,947.00 and then at 2,960.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at Monday’s low of 2,917.75 and
then at 2,900.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly
up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-
term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is seen at 7,600.00 and then at
last week’s high of 7,637.50. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at 7,550.00 and then at 7,500.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a four-month
low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-
term technical advantage as a steep four-week-old downtrend
is in place on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at the overnight high of 140 1/32 and
then at Monday’s high of 140 16/32. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 139
16/32 and then at the May low of 139 8/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit an eight-
month low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
steep four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 118.18.0 and then at Monday’s high of 118.23.0. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 118.08.0 and then at the May low
of 118.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S.
trading. The bulls have faded as a five-week-old downtrend
is in place on the daily bar chart, to suggest a market top
is in place. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar
index are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-
day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are
neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at 94.000 and then at 94.320. Shorter-
term support is seen at last week’s low of 93.395 and then
at 93.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are higher and near Monday’s
contract high in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the firm
overall near-term technical advantage, but it’s at present
price levels that rallies this year have petered out. The
shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the
4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to
reside just above technical resistance at the contract high
of $72.74 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. The U.S.-China
trade war remains bearish for grains. While grain market
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage,
corn and soybeans look like they might be bottoming but
bulls need to show more power early this week to better
suggest such. U.S. corn and soybean harvest pressure is
under way at full speed, so look for farmer selling pressure
to limit the upside.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff