Wednesday, September 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets
Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed overnight, with European
stocks mostly up and Asian equities mostly down. U.S. stock
indexes are pointed toward slightly firmer openings when
the New York day session begins. There is little risk
aversion in the marketplace so far this week, despite some
looming trade and secondary currency matters that could
upset traders and investors in the near term.
The U.S. economic report pace picks up speed today after
light schedules Monday and Tuesday. The highlight today is
the producer price index for August, which is expected to
be up 0.2% from July.
On Thursday the European Central Bank meets and is expected
to report it will continue to pull back from years of a
very easy monetary policy. The Bank of England also holds
is regular monetary policy meeting Thursday.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index
lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher and
trading just below $70.00 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the
weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the producer price
index, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, and the
Federal Reserve’s beige book.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in
early U.S. trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-
term technical advantage amid an uptrend still in place on
the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
2,900.00 and then at 2,910.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at last week’s low of 2,880.00 and then at
last week’s low of 2,869.50. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating:
5.5
December Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are firmer in
early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at the overnight high of 7,568.00 and
then at 7,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 7,530.25 and then at 7,500.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-
Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S.
trading, on a mild corrective bounce after hitting a four-
week low on Tuesday. Bears now have the overall near-term
technical advantage as a fledgling downtrend is in place on
the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
seen at the overnight high of 142 10/32 and then at this
week’s high of 142 27/32. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low
of 141 28/32 and then at 141 16/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up on a
corrective rebound after hitting a four-week low on
Tuesday. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices have been trending lower for three weeks.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 119.15.0 and then at 119.20.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at this week’s low of 119.09.0 and then at 119.05.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early
U.S. trading. The bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage but trading has been choppy recently.
The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are
neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators for the dollar index are neutral to bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at last week’s high of 95.280 and then at 95.500.
Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 94.450
and then at 94.250. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S.
trading. The bulls have now regained good upside momentum,
but very stiff technical resistance still lies just above
the market. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral
early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI
and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance
at the overnight high of $70.14 and then at $71.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support a the overnight low
of $69.50 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly weaker overnight.
Grain market traders are focused on this morning’s monthly
USDA supply and demand reports. Trading early today will
likely be subdued ahead of the government’s late-morning
update on supply and demand. The report is expected to be
generally bearish. The bears have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage in the grain futures markets.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
