Currency Markets Settle Down Late this Week

Currency Markets Settle Down Late this Week

Friday, August 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock
indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New
York day session begins.

The world currency markets have calmed down a bit the past
couple days, as the U.S. dollar index has backed down from
its 14-month high scored on Wednesday. The closely watched
Turkish lira currency is weaker again today despite the
Turkish government taking steps to prop up the currency and
the economy. U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said Turkey
faces more sanctions if a U.S. citizen is not released by
Turkish authorities.

In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index was
reported down 0.3% in July from June, and up 2.1%, year-on-
year. The numbers were close to in line with market
expectations.

The other key outside market today finds Nymex crude oil
prices slightly firmer and trading just around $65.50 a
barrel. Oil prices hit a seven-week low Thursday and are
still trending lower.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the
University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, and
leading economic indicators.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower
in early U.S. trading. The bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s
high of 2,851.75 and then at the August high of 2,863.75.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at Thursday’s
low of 2,817.50 and then at this week’s low of 2,803.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly
lower in early trading. Bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 7,434.50 and then
at this week’s high of 7,479.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at 7,350.00 and then at this week’s low of 7,316.50.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a four-
week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at the overnight high of 145 2/32 and
then at 145 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of
144 16/32 and then at this week’s low of 144 even. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S.
trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 120.16.0 and then at this week’s high of 120.18.0.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of
120.07.5 and then at this week’s low of 120.01.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is weaker on a corrective
pullback after hitting a 14-month high on Wednesday. Bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are
bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at this week’s high of 96.865 and then at 97.000.
Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 96.020
and then at 95.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are near firmer in early
U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce after hitting a seven-
week low on Thursday. Bulls are fading and prices are
trending lower. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical
resistance at $66.00 and then at $67.00. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at this week’s low of $64.43
and then at $64.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to higher overnight, on
corrective rebounds from recent selling pressure and on
reports of new trade talks between the U.S. and Russia that
will take place later this month.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff