Currency Market Turmoil in Focus–Fears of Contagion After Turkish Lira Plummets

Currency Market Turmoil in Focus–Fears of Contagion After Turkish Lira Plummets

Friday, August 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight, with
European shares leading the way with solid losses. The
currency markets are in keen focus late this week as the
Russian ruble has sunk against the U.S. dollar and the Euro
currency fell to a one-year low against the greenback. The
Euro currency has taken a beating on the world foreign
exchange market today, as the Euro zone has a heavier
exposure to the Turkish lira, which has been pummeled
recently on the foreign exchange market—losing around 15%
of its value just this week. All of the above have pushed
the U.S. dollar index to a 13-month high today, on safe-
haven demand. The world marketplace is especially concerned
about the Turkish lira’s situation expanding into a
contagion of secondary world currencies. The Financial
Times has reported the European Central Bank is examining
several European banks’ exposure to the lira. U.S. stock
indexes are also pointed toward lower openings when the New
York day session begins.

The gold and silver market bulls are frustrated the that
currency market turmoil has not at all benefitted the safe-
haven metals—at least not yet.

The key U.S. data point of the week is Friday morning’s
consumer price index report for July, which is forecast to
come in at up 0.2% from June. Thursday’s producer price
index for July came in lower than expected, at unchanged
from June when a 0.2% rise was expected.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes
the monthly Treasury statement of receipts and outlays.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early
U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a six-month
high earlier this week. The bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight
high of 2,852.75 and then at this week’s high of 2,863.75.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at the overnight
low of 2,836.75 and then at 2,820.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.0

September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are lower in
early trading, on profit taking. Bulls still have the firm
overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight
high of 7,472.75 and then at 7,500.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 7,424.25 and then at
7,400.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S.
trading, on safe-haven demand. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
seen at the overnight high of 144 5/32 and then at 144
16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 143 12/32
and then at 143 even. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S.
trading, on safe-haven demand. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.04.5 and then
at 120.10.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 119.23.5 and then at 119.16.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day
Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is solidly higher and hit a
13-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early
today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the
overnight high of 96.035 and then at 96.250. Shorter-term
support is seen at 95.500 and then at the overnight low of
94.385. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S.
trading after hitting a six-week low overnight. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage but have
faded this week. The shorter-term moving averages are
bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above
technical resistance at $67.50 and then at $68.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low
of $66.14 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. The big report of
the week for the grains is Friday morning’s monthly supply-
and-demand report. Look for the most active trading of the
week after that report’s release. Weather in the Corn Belt
remains a non-threatening element.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff