Podcast Link: https://michaelmelissinos.podbean.com/e/an-update-on-precious-metals/ Precious metals have been beaten down since their 2011 peaks. Remember when Gold and Silver shot up to $1,900/oz and $50/oz? 2011 was the final thrust in a multi-year bull market for precious metals, but over the past five years, Gold has fallen...

The Wisdom State of Trend Following report — currently standing at +17.48% YTD — has shown that 2014 is a “come-back” year for trend following.

Could this be the beginning of a real turning point for the strategy?

A New Market Environment Beneficial to Trend Following?

This month of October seems to bring back flavours of the last crash. Remember 2008: the best year of the decade for trend following.

With stock markets down and jittery, volatilities expanding, we’re seeing some very interesting moves in commodities, bonds and other markets.

This month of October seems to bring back flavours of the last crash. Remember 2008: the best year of the decade for trend following.

The moves are still moderate, but with stocks having pretty much rallied «straight up» since 2009, there is a lot more room to the downside.

Trend following might once again benefit from these changing market conditions. As a diversifier, or a pure way to participate in these market conditions, it might not be too late to get in with the strategy.

LTX Trend Following System

Whereas the State of Trend Following is a good indicator of the strategy’s general performance, it was primarily designed as an index, not as a practical trading system.

On the other hand, our LTX proprietary system has been designed as a “ready-to-trade” option for global diversified trend following — accessible to smaller portfolios and trading accounts (starting at $30K).

We recently updated and published the performance for LTX in 2014. The strong positive returns (up to 100%) for all variations of the system show that LTX is well equipped to capture trends in global markets.

LTX Performance in 2014:

LTX-6-Sep-14-medium

LTX-6: +104.2% (Max DD: 8.3%)

LTX-8-Sep-14-medium

LTX-8: +76.6% (Max DD: 5.8%)

LTX-12-Sep-14-medium

LTX-12: +86.7% (Max DD: 6.3%)

LTX-16-Sep-14-medium

LTX-16: +29.0% (Max DD: 5.4%)

We recently updated the performance of our proprietary systems CTX and LTX. We'll aim to keep the numbers current to check the systems performance in «live conditions».

To make sure you receive performance updates as they become available, please make sure to subscribe to our newsletter, using the subscribe form besides this article.

In this post, we're zooming in on the performance of the CTX and LTX systems for the year to date (as of end Sep-14). Performance is good-to-excellent, with all systems showing positive results – the best one just topping 100% return over the last nine months.

LTX: Star Performer

2014 can definitely be called a «come-back year» for trend following.

The Wisdom State of Trend Following report has had a very good year so far, with accelerating performance over the last few months.

LTX – our proprietary system based on trend following principles – was perfectly positioned to benefit from these conditions. It did its job very well, posting a strong 2014 across all versions of the system. The last few months were particulary positive.

LTX Performance:

LTX-6-Sep-14-medium
LTX-8-Sep-14-medium
LTX-12-Sep-14-medium
LTX-16-Sep-14-medium

This is the first release of our monthly newsletter where we’ll provide updates on CTA performance, Commodity Trends, and Commodity Strategies. If you have any questions, comments, or feedback on the format please feel free to email us directly at info@wisdomtrading.com.

Commodity Trends

The Commodity markets have been trending nicely in the first quarter of 2014. We've seen some major moves in Agriculture and Soft Commodities especially.

Class III Milk

Class III milk futures touched a record $24.15 per 100 pounds on the CME on March 24 for the spot contract. Milk has been a strong performing market for trend followers this year and CTAs like Schindler, Dairy Advantage.

Milk Class IIII futures chart

Lean Hogs

Unless you’re involved in Livestock, you probably haven’t heard of the PED virus (Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea). In the farming world, however, this disease has caused mass panic in the Lean Hog supply chain.