Thursday, September 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed overnight, with European
shares mostly firmer and Asian stocks mostly down. U.S.
stock indexes are also pointed toward slightly higher
openings when the New York day session begins. Trade
disputes remain in the front burner of the marketplace late
this week as today is the last day for public comment on a
new set of $200 billion in U.S. tariffs on China’s imports.
Gold prices are higher in early U.S. trading, possibly due
in part to some safe-haven demand amid the solid losses in
Bitcoin after Goldman Sachs decided not to pursue trading
in that instrument.
Many world commodity market prices have been at least
somewhat impacted by an emergency export tax implemented by
the government of Argentina earlier this week. Officials
there are trying to fend off a financial crisis that has
occurred in part because the Argentine peso has plunged in
value against the U.S. dollar.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index
slightly lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are
slightly higher. Price action the past couple days in crude
suggests the oil bulls have run out of gas.
Traders and investors are awaiting what is arguably the
most important U.S. economic report of the month, due out
on Friday: the Labor Department’s employment situation
report for August. The key non-farm payrolls component is
expected to be up around 190,000.
There is a very heavy slate of U.S. economic data due for
release Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims
report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the ADP national
employment report, revised productivity and costs, the U.S.
services PMI, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, the
ISM non-manufacturing report on business, the global
services PMI, the monthly chain store sales index, and the
weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in
early U.S. trading. The bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage amid an uptrend in place on
the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of
2,905.00 and then at the contract high of 2,921.75. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at this week’s
low of 2,882.25 and then at 2,865.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.0
December Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are near
steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average
is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at 7,600.00 and then at 7,650.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s low of
7,531.00 and then at 7,500.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly firmer in early
U.S. trading. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage but have faded and need to show fresh
power soon to keep their chart edge. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 143
18/32 and then at 144 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s
low of 142 28/32 and then at 142 16/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly firmer in early
U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
Wednesday’s high of 120.02.5 and then at Tuesday’s high of
120.09.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of
119.26.5 and then at 119.20.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S.
trading. The bulls still have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for
the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are
neutral to bullish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of
95.280 and then at 95.500. Shorter-term support is seen at
the overnight low of 94.500 and then at 94.250. Wyckoff’s
Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are near steady. The bulls
appear to be exhausted. The shorter-term moving averages are
neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above
technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of $69.59 and then
at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support
at the overnight low of $68.41 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed again overnight. Worries on
the U.S.-world trade front continue to limit buying interest
in the grains. However, very wet weather in parts of the
Corn Belt at present is prompting ideas of harvest delays.
Corn and soybean bears are still in control amid big U.S.
crop potential. Wheat is being pulled down by corn and
soybeans, despite some global production shortfalls.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
