Monday, September 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed to mostly higher overnight.
European and U.S. stock indexes were higher, while Asian
stock markets were mostly lower. Risk appetite among
traders and investors is on the upswing to start the
trading week, despite some lingering concerns about the
trade war being waged between the U.S. and its major
trading partners—namely China. The U.S. is set to levy
still more tariffs on China’s imports to the U.S.
Secondary currency and financial markets appeared to
stabilize to start the trading week, which has somewhat
assuaged the marketplace.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index
slightly lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher
and trading just above $68.00 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and
includes the employment trends index and consumer credit.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early
U.S. trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage amid an uptrend still in place on the
daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at 2,900.00 and then at last
week’s high of 2,916.75. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at last week’s low of 2,869.50 and then at 2,860.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
December Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher in
early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
seen at 7,550.00 and then at 7,570.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 7,459.00 and then at
last week’s low of 7,420.50. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S.
trading. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage, but a fledgling downtrend is in place
on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
seen at the overnight high of 142 24/32 and then at 143
even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 142 13/32
and then at 142 even. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady and hit a
four-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage, but prices have been
trending lower for three weeks. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.23.5 and
then at 119.28.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 119.18.5 and then at 119.15.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly down in early
U.S. trading. The bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for
the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are
neutral to bullish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of
95.280 and then at 95.500. Shorter-term support is seen at
last week’s low of 94.450 and then at 94.250. Wyckoff’s
Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S.
trading. The bulls still appear to be exhausted to suggest a
near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above
technical resistance at the overnight high of $68.52 and
then at $69.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at the overnight low of $67.82 and then at $67.50.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Grain market
bears are still in technical control. Focus this week will
be on Wednesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand reports.
Trading early this week is likely to be subdued ahead of the
government update on supply and demand.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
