Wednesday, July 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes
are pointed toward solidly lower openings when the New York
day session begins. The U.S. has targeted China with 10%
tariffs on another $200 billion in Chinese product imports,
and China again responded with another threat to retaliate.
The U.S.-China trade war has at least temporarily cast a
pall over world equity markets at mid-week.
U.S. President Trump is in Europe today meeting with
European leaders, with a meeting with Russian President
Vladimir Putin later this week. The marketplace will watch
Trump’s meetings closely, as the U.S. president has had
harsh words for European leaders regarding trade and their
lack of financial support for NATO.
The important U.S. economic data due out this week includes
the producer price index on Wednesday and the consumer price
index on Thursday. Today’s PPI report for June is forecast
up 0.2% from May, with the June CPI report on Thursday also
seen up 0.2% from May.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices
lower and trading around $73.50 a barrel. Libyan oil
exports are hitting the world market again, after being
disrupted by political violence, and that’s putting some
pressure on crude today.
Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is higher on a corrective
bounce from recent selling pressure.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes
the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, monthly
wholesale trade and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks
report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early
U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a four-month
high on Tuesday. The bulls still have the firm overall near-
term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight
high of 2,787.00 and then at this week’s high of 2,797.75.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at this week’st
low of 2,761.75 and then at 2,750.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.0
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are lower on
profit taking after hitting a two-week high on Tuesday.
Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day)
are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
the overnight high of 7,272.75 and then at 7,300.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
7,204.50 and then at 7,150.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S.
trading. Prices are in a near-term uptrend. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 145
24/32 and then at this week’s high of 145 28/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support
lies at the overnight low of 145 10/32 and then at this
week’s low of 144 30/32. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S.
trading. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.13.0 and
then at last week’s high of 120.20.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at this week’s low of 120.00.0 and then at
119.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S.
trading, on a corrective bounce from recent selling
pressure. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar
index are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-
day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are
neutral to bullish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of
94.225 and then at 94.500. Shorter-term support is seen at
the overnight low of 93.880 and then at this week’s low of
93.440. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
August Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S.
trading. The bulls still have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are
neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The
9-day is above with the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical
resistance at the overnight high of $74.26 and then at this
week’s high of $74.70. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $73.00 and then at $72.50. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were solidly lower overnight and hit
new contract or for-the-move lows amid the latest tariff
threat from the U.S. against China. Grain market bears are
in firm technical command. World ag trade worries and
generally very good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt
remain bearish. This week’s highlight will be the USDA
monthly supply and demand report out Thursday morning.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
