Friday, July 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock
indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the
New York day session begins.
The important U.S. employment report from the Labor
Department is out Friday morning, with the non-farm jobs
number expected to come in at up 195,000 in June. Thursday’s
ADP national employment report for June showed a rise of
177,000 jobs. A big miss on the non-farm jobs number this
morning, from the consensus forecast, will likely move many
markets.
The U.S. and China remain headed for a full-blown trade war.
Both nations on Friday put into effect their already-
announced trade sanctions against each other. China today
said the U.S. has launched the biggest trade war in economic
history. The world marketplace did not react much to this
news, as the tit-for-tat moves today were fully expected.
However, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC minutes released
Thursday afternoon showed committee members are worried
about a trade war curtailing U.S. economic growth.
In other news, reports said that Bitcoin today becomes
outlawed as a transaction vehicle by India.
The Euro zone got some much-need positive economic news
today when German industrial production showed a solid rise
of 2.6% in May, from April.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices
slightly lower and trading around $72.50 a barrel. The U.S.
dollar index is also lower as the greenback bulls have
faded a bit this week.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes
the international trade in goods and services report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower
in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at 2,750.00 and then at
2,765.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at
Thursday’s low of 2,710.75 and then at last week’s low of
2,693.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly
lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 7,165.00 and then
at 7,200.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
7,050.00 and then at 7,000.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early
U.S. trading. Prices are in a near-term uptrend. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 145
25/32 and then at the May high of 145 28/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support
lies at 145 even and then at this week’s low of 144 16/32.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early
U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of
120.14.5 and then at 120.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
this week’s low of 119.30.0 and then at 119.24.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S.
trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage but have faded this week. The shorter-term moving
averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as
the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the
dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of
94.345 and then at this week’s high of 94.730. Shorter-term
support is seen at 93.830 and then at 93.500. Wyckoff’s
Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
August Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S.
trading, following a surprising build in U.S. oil stocks
this week. The shorter-term moving averages are still
bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-
day is above with the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical
resistance at the overnight high of $73.32 and then at
$74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Traders will
closely examine today’s weekly USDA export sales report.
Bears are still in technical command. World ag trade worries
and generally good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt
remain bearish. It’s going to take a mid- or late-summer
weather market scare to jump-start rallies in the stumbling
grain markets.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
